Rec
Recession Indicator
Topic
N/A
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 9
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
The SAM rule, which indicates a recession is near if the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% above its 12-month low, has not been triggered yet, suggesting the economy is currently stable.
"if 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% above its 12 month low, recession is near. We're now..."
Sep 12, 2025
Incorrect
The inverted yield curve is identified as a recession indicator that has predicted every recession for the last five decades.
"this indicator is called the inverted yield curve"
Aug 17, 2024
Pending
The inverted yield curve is identified as a recession indicator that has predicted every recession for the past five decades.
"this recession indicator is called the inverted yield curve"
Sep 12, 2023
Pending
The inverted yield curve has accurately predicted every recession for the past five decades and is currently signaling significant warning signs.
"No one can perfectly time a recession but there is one recession indicator which has warned investor..."
Sep 12, 2023
Pending
The inverted yield curve has historically predicted every recession for the past five decades and is currently signaling potential recessionary risks, despite being largely ignored.
"no one can perfectly time a recession but there is one recession indicator which has warned investor..."
Sep 12, 2023
Pending
The inverted yield curve is flashing major warning signs, the most significant in over four decades.
"this indicator is called the inverted yield curve and today this inverted yield curve is showing som..."
Sep 10, 2023
Pending
A White House press release explaining recession definitions is considered a significant recession indicator by the speaker.
"I believe we just got one of the biggest recession indicators yet and that is a press release from t..."
Jul 25, 2022
Pending
The speaker interprets the White House's stance as emphasizing unemployment levels, which are currently low, as a key factor in assessing recession status.
"the paper is trying to say that instead we should focus on unemployment levels which are totally fin..."
Jul 25, 2022
Pending
The inverted treasury yield curve is a leading indicator that has already signaled an upcoming recession.
"the leading recession indicator the treasury's yield curve has already flipped"
Apr 22, 2022
Pending
An inverted yield curve (2-year bond paying more than 10-year bond) is a typical warning sign of an upcoming recession.
"if those yields invert meaning the two-year Bond pays more than the 10-year bond it's typically a wa..."
Feb 4, 2022
Pending